Is 9mm the new .380?

Michael Bane seems to think so. He took the launch of the new SIG P290 to mean that the 9mm wars have now begun. He also made a 9mm addendum to that blog post that says that it will be limited to...

guns in the 15-20 ounce range WITH the magazine inserted...6-7 shot single stack mags...heavy DAO trigger...MSRP in the $500 range.

Essentially, he is making the case that the new breed of CCW holders are going to be flocking to 9 mils now because they will want a big boy gun to go with their new mouse gun.

While I get what he is saying, I have to say that I think the push will be to 9mm guns that already exist, and not to a new breed of Kel-Tec PF9 knock offs. I personally dont believe that this new breed (which he says are mostly a younger and female demographic) will be wanting a pocket gun that is slightly heavier and larger then their already light and easy to carry pocket rocket. I also dont believe that many women shooters/new shooters are going to like the stout recoil that comes with those light weight 9s.

I think that they may definitely want to step up to a larger gun (for either CCW or home defense), but it will be to a full size or compact (maybe sub-compact) guns. Yes, it will probably be in 9mm because thats the least intimidating cartridge to new shooters..... so consequentially, the big boom in the industry will be felt in 9mm ammo, and not new 9mm guns.

If Bane is right, there are a few companies already poised to benefit from a 9mm craze like he is describing. Kahr has their light weight PM9... there is the Rohrbaugh R9... and Kel-Tec has their very affordable P-11 and PF9 with the big weight/size/price winner easily being the PF9. There is the Taurus slim 9 and the New SIG P290, but for the same size and weight you could just carry the proven Glock 26.

..... Or, perhaps .32 ACP is the new .380

Time will tell.